The 2021 NFL Mock Draft first spherical relies solely on betting odds
- The 2021 NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 29th
- Sports betting has already released a wide variety of NFL draft props
- We took all the available odds and put together our NFL Mock Draft for the first round based solely on those odds
With most of the big names claimed in the free agency, all eyes are on the 2021 NFL draft, which begins Thursday, April 29th at 8 p.m. ET. While we're pretty sure we know how the first two picks will play out, there is plenty of intrigue after that.
Instead of sitting here and giving you my opinion on what's going to happen – you'll find out a bit about this at the bottom of this page – I've rounded up all of the NFL draft odds and used them to put together a full NFL mock for the first round Design.
The props considered include, but are not limited to: odds of winning a top 5/10 selection, player draft position over / under, odds of the first player in each position, first round totals, offense or defense with the first selection for each Team etc.
2021 NFL Mock Draft
|1||Jacksonville Jaguars||Trevor Lawrence||QB|
|2||New York Jets||Zach Wilson||QB|
|3||San Francisco 49ers||Mac Jones||QB|
|4th||Denver Broncos *||Justin Fields||QB|
|5||Cincinnati Bengals||Kyle Pitts||TE|
|6th||Miami Dolphins||Yes & # 39; Marr Chase||WR|
|7th||New England Patriots *||Trey Lance||QB|
|8th||Carolina Panthers||Penei Sewell||OT|
|9||Atlanta Falcons *||Patrick Surtain II||CB|
|10||Los Angeles chargers *||Rashawn Slater||OT|
|11||New York Giants||DeVonta Smith||WR|
|12th||Philadelphia Eagles||Jaylen Waddle||WR|
|13th||Dallas Cowboys *||Jaycee Horn||CB|
|14th||Minnesota Vikings||Christian Darrisaw||OT|
|fifteen||Detroit Lions *||Micah Parsons||LB|
|16||Cardinals of Arizona||Caleb Farley||CB|
|17th||Las Vegas Raiders||Trevon Moehrig||S.|
|18th||Miami Dolphins||Kwity Paye||EDGE|
|19th||Washington soccer team||Dillon Radunz||OT|
|20th||Chicago Bears||Teven Jenkins||OT|
|21||Indianapolis Colts||Liam Eichenberg||OT|
|22nd||Tennessee Titans||Greg Newsome II||CB|
|23||New York Jets||Jaelan Phillips||EDGE|
|24||Pittsburgh Steelers||Aliyah Vera-Tucker||OIL|
|25th||Jacksonville Jaguars||Gregory Rousseau||EDGE|
|26||Cleveland Browns||Jayson Oweh||EDGE|
|27||Baltimore Ravens||Rashod Bateman||WR|
|28||New Orleans Saints||Terrace Marshall Jr.||WR|
|29||Green Bay Packers||Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah||LB|
|30th||Buffalo Bills||Azeez Ojulari||EDGE|
|31||Atlanta Falcons *||Najee Harris||RB|
|32||Tampa Bay privateers||Joe Tryon||EDGE|
* Denotes a planned trade.
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Here's a more compact look at the model, including who is currently holding each selection and where the trades take place:
>> Check out SBD's 1st Round NFL Mock Draft 1.0 <<
Projected NFL draft trades
- Broncos move up to 4th place for fields – Personally, I don't think Denver will be giving up the selection to make this deal. There will likely be a ninth overall win and another second ballot. But the Ohio State quarterback is still very much preferred to be selected in the top 5, so we had to take a step. The other two teams eager to see a beeper are the Patriots and Bears, and those moves would likely require several firsts going to the Falcons.
- Patriots move up to 7th place for Lance – The Patriots obviously don't believe in Jarrett Stidham and we're not sure what Cam Newton will bring in 2021. New England needs their next Tom Brady but needs to move up from 15 to do so. Trey Lance's draft position over / under is 6.5 on DraftKings with -112 odds on each side and 7.5 on FanDuel with the subheading listed at -215. Detroit is the perfect candidate to pull down as they have holes all over their squad to fill. The Lions would likely receive the first and second round of pats from this draft when this trade takes place.
- Chargers move up to 10th place for Slater – I had a problem finding a home for Rashawn Slater, who is preferred as a top ten player. He has to fall to Penei Sewell, who is hugely popular as the first offensive lineman but doesn't make sense in Atlanta and chances are Dallas will go on the defensive with his first pick. Along with their first round of voting this year (13th overall round), the chargers would likely also have to throw in a third round of voting to get the much-needed protection for Justin Herbert.
- The Falcons return to the 1st round for Najee Harris – The draft position of the Alabama return over / under is fixed at 29.5, with a rate of -112 on each side. Looking at the teams picking late in the first round, none of them have blatant holes at RB, so we had to push through another trade. The Todd Gurley experiment didn't work out in Atlanta, and neither do I see Mike Davis being the solution. It's a short step from 35 to 31 for the Falcons, likely having to throw in another mid / late round pick or possibly swapping picks with the Chiefs in the fourth round.
First round of mock draft notes
Allow me to justify some of the other tips that you call me an idiot:
- Bengals take Kyle Pitts at # 5 – Cincinnati should use that selection at Penei Sewell in my opinion. But Pitt's chances of getting into the top 5 are -167 while Sewells have fallen to +108. Pitts also stands the best chance of being the first non-quarterback selected in the draft. If Atlanta stays on No. 4, they might be the ones making the Florida view a top 5 choice.
- Bears add to the offensive line at 20 – Andy Dalton isn't the long-term answer in central Chicago, and he may not be a huge improvement in the short-term either. To give Dalton the best chance they have, they have to get better up front. Chances are very good that Chicago will take an offensive player with their first round of voting, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're the team picking up Kellen Mond or selling everything to advance to Fields / Lance. But no. 20 is probably too early for moon and will be very expensive for the latter.
- Ravens get Lamar a real WR1 at 27 – Sammy Watkins is a good complementary recipient, but not the answer to Baltimore's lack of a real no. 1 recipient. Chances are the Ravens will go on the offensive on their first pick, and while it might be an offensive lineman, the receiver makes too much sense. After missing Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson in the free agency, the team will have to jump into the position to get back to the same level as the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC.
- Packers take Owusu-Koramoah at 29 – looking up and down the packer list it is easier to identify positions they don't need than what they are doing. Outside of QB, RB, LT, WR1, CB1, and the safety position, there isn't a lot to love. If last year's draft says anything, Green Bay will likely sit a few years behind David Bakhtiari. Chances are, however, that the packers are going on the defensive and linebackers are such a big need for them.
After working on television, Matt focused on numbers, especially odds of winning. He has been with us since 2016 and is editor-in-chief of SBD. Among other things, he is responsible for creating our futures trackers, the score predictor from SBD, SBD Sharp and his own model for calculating NFL SOS.
After working on television, Matt focused on numbers, especially odds of winning. He has been with us since 2016 and is the editor-in-chief of SBD. Among other things, he has attributed the creation of our futures trackers, the score predictor from SBD, SBD Sharp and his own model for calculating NFL SOS.